Trump "Holding Off Additional Strikes on Iran at Request of Gulf Allies"... Balancing Pressure and Negotiations

U.S. President Donald Trump announced on the 13th (local time) that he has held off on additional airstrikes against Iran at the request of allied nations in the Gulf region, shortly after warning that he would not hesitate to launch "new military attacks." On the same day, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) claimed to have targeted a U.S. early-warning radar in Bahrain in response to an attack on a communications tower in Sirik.

The war, which began on February 28, has entered its ninth month. The U.S. military conducted airstrikes on Keshm Island in Hormozgan Province on the nights of the 8th-9th, and Iranian authorities said there was no damage to residential or commercial facilities. While Trump sees low chances of full-scale war resuming, he warned that if fighting resumes on a large scale, he would target civil infrastructure including 38 bridges.

Negotiations are continuing through Qatari mediation, but positions remain far apart. Iran has put forward seven demands including a blockade of southern ports and lifting of sanctions, and returned to the June Islamabad memorandum of understanding but added new conditions regarding the Strait of Hormuz. Iran maintains it will not hand over highly enriched uranium but is open to reducing its concentration. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio dismissed some demands as "ridiculous and unrealistic." Middle East security expert Andreas Krieg analyzed that the U.S. is problematizing the point that "America wants concessions before Iran makes compromises."

Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz show no signs of easing. Iran's state television reported that 11 tankers were attacked in the past ten days, with 4 unable to continue navigation. The Revolutionary Guards also denied U.S. claims that all mines in the strait have been cleared. With Gulf states' calls for restraint now public, a tug-of-war over military pressure and diplomatic solutions is expected to continue for the time being.

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